Views

Monthly Review: Global risk-off sentiment drives local yield upsurge

The latest economic data for Malaysia were mixed. Wholesale trade and domestic-oriented manufacturing production for July were resilient, consistent with the positive industrial production growth. However, the external sector remained weak as the latest exports for August fell at a steeper pace of 18.6% (July: -13.0%), dragged by softer demand from key trade partners. Going […]

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GST and other potential anchors to enhance Malaysia’s fiscal position

Malaysia continues to maintain its long-term commitment of fiscal consolidation to enhance debt sustainability. In terms of the government’s fiscal balance, this has remained largely stable, excluding during the pandemic period. Over the 10-year period from 2013 to 2022, Malaysia’s fiscal deficit averaged 4.2% of gross domestic product (GDP). Excluding the COVID-19 fund, Malaysia’s fiscal

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Monthly Review: Improvement in foreign inflows into Malaysia’s markets

Malaysia’s economy registered moderate growth of 2.9% in 2Q2023 (1Q2023: 5.6%), presaged by weaker performance of the external sector. Sustained economic expansion over two consecutive quarters has kept growth on track towards the official year-end gross domestic product (GDP) target of 4%-5%. Private consumption and recovering tourism activities remained key drivers, offsetting the weaker external

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Monthly Review: Monetary policies in transition could lead to bond market volatilities

Malaysia’s latest exports in June fell by 14.1% (May: -0.9%), as exports to the US and EU slumped by double-digits of 19.0% and 21.8%. The weaker external sector performance in 2Q2023 reinforced our views of weaker domestic gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the quarter. A sustained trade moderation coupled with higher interest rates in

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Malaysia launches visionary MADANI economic narrative

On July 27 2023, the Malaysian government launched the visionary MADANI economic narrative, a roadmap to pave the way for sustainable growth. The framework will guide Malaysia’s mission of socioeconomic as well as overarching strategic and tactical plans. From the economic perspective, the MADANI framework is timely in view of the upcoming Budget 2024, New

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Monthly Review: Monetary policy divergence exerts pressure on bond market

The latest retail and exports data suggest a slower domestic economy in the second quarter of 2023 is imminent given the anticipated slowdown in the global economy. Notably, the second straight month of moderation in the seasonally adjusted volume index of wholesale & retail trade (April: 4.7%, Mar: 9.4%) along with interest rate tightening and

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Ringgit weakness reflects Malaysia’s economic vulnerability

The sharp weakening in Malaysia’s ringgit has reached an unprecedented low based on its Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) according to data from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). The REER is a measure of the exchange rate value weighted by trade and adjusted for inflation. On one hand, it explains that exports from Malaysia

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Monthly Review: Easing inflation and potential peak in OPR to support bond market

The local bond market saw the fifth consecutive month of net foreign inflows at RM3.0 billion in May, higher than the RM1.5 billion recorded in the prior month. The solid foreign demand reflected the attractiveness of local bonds amid the anticipated moderation in inflation this year. Local govvies continued to attract foreign interest with net

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