Bond Market Updates

Summary Malaysia posted a firmer gross domestic product (GDP) print of 3.3% in 3Q2023 (2Q2023: 2.9%) in line with the advanced estimate, bolstered by private consumption which grew at a faster pace. The latest October trade data showed some nascent signs of recovery in the external sector, supported by an anticipated recovery in the Chinese …

Risk-on market against cautious central banks – November 2023 – Summary Read More »

Summary Domestic consumption remained resilient, while the softer decline in exports together with better-than-expected economic performance and stable industrial production growth in China may indicate a potential rebound in Malaysia’s manufacturing sector. Despite a temporary pause in the dollar index’s rally against major currencies, the Ringgit ringgit continued its weakening trend in October. The local …

Escalating geopolitical risks fuel market volatility – October 2023 – Summary Read More »

Summary The latest economic data for Malaysia were mixed. Wholesale trade and domestic-oriented manufacturing production for July were rather resilient, whereas trade data showed continued weakness. The removal of the phrase “slightly accommodative” from the monetary policy statement may imply that the current interest rate level is appropriate. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to …

Global Risk-Off Sentiment Drives Local Yield Upsurge – September 2023 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s economy registered decelerating growth of 2.9% in 2Q2023 (1Q2023: 5.6%), presaged by weaker external sector data. Nonetheless, the growth trajectory remains consistent with the official target of 4%-5%. The return of equity flows in July amid persistent inflows to the bond market led to a temporary appreciation of the Malaysian ringgit (MYR); the …

Improvement in Foreign Inflows Into Malaysia’s Markets – August 2023 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s external sector ended 2Q2023 on a weaker note, reinforcing our views of slower gross domestic product (GDP) growth data for the quarter. On the bond market, the yield spread between MGS and UST narrowed significantly and subsequently turned negative in July amid aggressive US rate tightening. While positive foreign flows into the bond …

Monetary Policies in Transition Could Lead to Bond Market Volatilities – July 2023 – Summary Read More »

Summary  The latest retail and exports data suggest that a slower domestic economy in 2Q2023 is imminent given the anticipated slowdown in the global economy. On the bond market, while MGS commands positive yield differentials with the UST, the spread has narrowed significantly since 2022. The continuing divergence of interest rate policy between Malaysia and …

Monetary Policy Divergence Exerts Pressure on Bond Market – June 2023 – Summary Read More »

Global Bond Markets Global government bonds traded mixed in May. The UST market came under selling pressure in May as investors monitored the progress of the US debt negotiations and assessed the Fed’s interest rate policy going forward. In Europe, the bund ended mostly firmer in May, with yields mostly declining on softer European inflation …

Monthly Bond Market and Rating Snapshot – May 2023 – Summary Read More »

Global Bond Markets Global government bonds traded mixed in April. The UST yields largely declined on rising anticipation that the Fed’s rate hike cycle may end soon as inflation continued to moderate. Meanwhile in Europe, the longer-tenure 30-year bund yield rose as the market expected higher interest rate for longer to contain the elevated inflationary …

Monthly Bond Market and Rating Snapshot – April 2023 – Summary Read More »

Global Bond Markets Global government bonds saw risk-off rallies in March amid the banking sector turmoil in the US and Europe. As a result, bond yields mostly declined across the curve. Going forward, major central banks are likely to continue focusing on striking a balance between containing elevated inflation on the one hand and rising …

Monthly Bond Market and Rating Snapshot – March 2023 – Summary Read More »

Global Bond Markets Global government bonds mostly came under selling pressure in February on the growing possibility of “higher for longer” interest rate policy. This is not surprising given that inflation on both sides of the Atlantic continue to hover more than two times above major central banks’ 2% target. Meanwhile in China, bonds traded …

Monthly Bond Market and Rating Snapshot – February 2023 – Summary Read More »