Fixed-Income Views

Malaysia’s 2024 GDP advance estimate read 5.1%, within the official projection and MARC Ratings’ forecast. This sustained growth was primarily driven by robust domestic demand, including strong consumer spending, and a resilient services sector. Overall business activity remained healthy, supported by a sharp 16.9% rise in exports in December. The strong overall exports, despite a …

Monthly Review: Malaysia sustains growth amid hawkish US policy Read More »

In 4Q2024, Malaysia’s economy started on a strong note, with October’s Industrial Production Index expanding by 2.1% (Sep: 2.3%), driven by a 3.3% growth in the manufacturing sector. Private consumption remained robust, as indicated by a year-to-date increase in passenger vehicle sales, supporting an overall economic growth forecast of 5.1% for 2024. Globally, the US …

Monthly Review: Bearish bonds amid hawkish Fed stance Read More »

Malaysia’s economy demonstrated resilience in the third quarter of 2024, with GDP growth reaching 5.3% (1H2024: 5.1%). Manufacturing growth accelerated to 5.6% (1H2024: 3.3%) while the positive investment cycle remains fuelled by a surge in capital imports. Exports saw a rebound in October, following a minor setback in September. Despite rising global uncertainties, especially after …

Monthly Review: US bond market diverges from broader bond market rally Read More »

Following the 50-basis point US rate cut on September 18, subsequent releases of strong economic data and limited signs of easing inflation in the US have driven yields higher across all bond markets. Notably, the unemployment rate, a key indicator for future rate cuts, improved to 4.1% (Aug: 4.2%), underscoring the resilience of the US …

Monthly Review: Caution in bond markets; confidence in domestic prospects Read More »

Malaysia’s economy started well in 3Q2024, supported by robust external demand and continued recovery in tourism. Exports sustained double-digit growth in August, aligning with an upward trend in the Industrial Production Index. Despite concerns regarding slower economic growth in China, one of Malaysia’s key trading partners, the recent rate cuts and additional fiscal stimulus in …

Monthly Review: US rate cut sustains foreign inflows Read More »

Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.9% in 2Q2024, surpassing the advance estimate of 5.8% (1Q2024: 4.2%). The nation’s household spending growth rate accelerated, while gross fixed capital formation sustained its strong double-digit growth. Additionally, export growth surged to 12.3% in July (June: 1.7%), driven by a 10.6% (June: 0.9%) broad-based increase in manufacturing …

Monthly Review: Optimism resurfaces, markets poised for anticipated US rate cuts Read More »

Malaysia’s advance GDP estimate for 2Q2024 posted a higher-than-expected economic growth of 5.8% (consensus: 4.7%, 1Q2024: 4.2%). This growth was driven by the continued strengthening of the services sector, which grew at 5.6% (1Q2024: 4.7%), marking five consecutive quarters of at least 4.0% growth. With the services sector remaining robust on the back of sustained …

Monthly Review: Strong momentum in Malaysia’s growth trajectory Read More »

Recent economic data for Malaysia was positive, pointing to a firm start to 2Q2024. Wholesale and retail trade was resilient, with growth accelerating to 7.5% in April (1Q2024: 2.3%), consistent with the higher domestic-oriented production growth for the month. On the external sector, Malaysia’s exports posted another month of strong growth at 7.3% in May …

Monthly Review: Broad bond rally gains momentum Read More »

Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.2% in 1Q2024, higher than the advanced estimate of 3.9% (4Q2023: 3.0%), mainly driven by the faster expansion of 4.7% in the services sector (4Q2023: 4.1%). Private consumption registered a healthy 4.7% growth (4Q2023: 4.2%), underpinned by firmer wholesale and retail trade growth of 7.1% in 1Q2024 (4Q2023: 3.7%). Meanwhile, investments …

Monthly Review: Bond market on firmer footing Read More »

Malaysia’s economy picked up by 3.9% in 1Q2024 (4Q2023: 3.0%) based on the advanced estimate, close to the official 2024 full-year gross domestic product (GDP) forecast of 4%-5%. The manufacturing sector registered a 1.9% rebound after two quarters of contraction, while growth in the construction sector accelerated to 9.8% (4Q2023: 3.5%). While the services sector …

Monthly Review: Early signs of interest rate outlook divergence Read More »