Fixed-Income Views

Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.9% in 2Q2024, surpassing the advance estimate of 5.8% (1Q2024: 4.2%). The nation’s household spending growth rate accelerated, while gross fixed capital formation sustained its strong double-digit growth. Additionally, export growth surged to 12.3% in July (June: 1.7%), driven by a 10.6% (June: 0.9%) broad-based increase in manufacturing …

Monthly Review: Optimism resurfaces, markets poised for anticipated US rate cuts Read More »

Malaysia’s advance GDP estimate for 2Q2024 posted a higher-than-expected economic growth of 5.8% (consensus: 4.7%, 1Q2024: 4.2%). This growth was driven by the continued strengthening of the services sector, which grew at 5.6% (1Q2024: 4.7%), marking five consecutive quarters of at least 4.0% growth. With the services sector remaining robust on the back of sustained …

Monthly Review: Strong momentum in Malaysia’s growth trajectory Read More »

Recent economic data for Malaysia was positive, pointing to a firm start to 2Q2024. Wholesale and retail trade was resilient, with growth accelerating to 7.5% in April (1Q2024: 2.3%), consistent with the higher domestic-oriented production growth for the month. On the external sector, Malaysia’s exports posted another month of strong growth at 7.3% in May …

Monthly Review: Broad bond rally gains momentum Read More »

Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.2% in 1Q2024, higher than the advanced estimate of 3.9% (4Q2023: 3.0%), mainly driven by the faster expansion of 4.7% in the services sector (4Q2023: 4.1%). Private consumption registered a healthy 4.7% growth (4Q2023: 4.2%), underpinned by firmer wholesale and retail trade growth of 7.1% in 1Q2024 (4Q2023: 3.7%). Meanwhile, investments …

Monthly Review: Bond market on firmer footing Read More »

Malaysia’s economy picked up by 3.9% in 1Q2024 (4Q2023: 3.0%) based on the advanced estimate, close to the official 2024 full-year gross domestic product (GDP) forecast of 4%-5%. The manufacturing sector registered a 1.9% rebound after two quarters of contraction, while growth in the construction sector accelerated to 9.8% (4Q2023: 3.5%). While the services sector …

Monthly Review: Early signs of interest rate outlook divergence Read More »

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) projects the domestic economy to grow between 4% and 5% in 2024 (2023: 3.7%), aligning with the government’s estimate while highlighting a potential rebound in the manufacturing sector and a newly forecast contraction in the agricultural sector. Domestic demand remains the anchor of the projection, supported by a lower unemployment rate, …

Monthly Review: Market adjusts to delay in rate cuts Read More »

Malaysia registered a slower gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.0% in 4Q2023 (advanced estimate: 3.4%; 3Q2023: 3.3%), as growth in the services sector moderated to 4.2% (3Q2023: 5.0%) while that in the manufacturing sector remained tepid at -0.3% (3Q2023: -0.1%). Consequently, the full-year 2023 GDP growth stood at 3.7% (2022: 8.7%). Looking ahead, we …

Monthly Review: Bond sell-off on resilient US economy Read More »

Malaysia posted a weaker-than-expected advanced gross domestic product (GDP) estimate of 3.4% in 4Q2023 (Consensus: 4.1%; 3Q2023: 3.3%), as growth in the services sector moderated to 4.7% (3Q2023: 5.0%). Consequently, the full-year advanced estimate GDP growth registered 3.8%, below the Budget 2024 estimate of 4.0%. Looking ahead, we project a higher GDP growth of 4.0%-4.5% …

Monthly Review: Rate cut pushback leading to bond sell-off Read More »

The latest economic data for Malaysia was mixed but within expectations. Retail trade was resilient, with growth rebounding to a four-month high of 2.4% (Sep: -0.4%), consistent with the higher domestic-oriented production growth for the month. On the external sector, notwithstanding the subdued November exports data of -5.9% (Oct: -4.4%), petroleum and rubber products rebounded …

Monthly Review: Ongoing disinflation sustains market rally Read More »

Malaysia posted a firmer gross domestic product (GDP) print of 3.3% in 3Q2023 (2Q2023: 2.9%), in line with the advanced estimate, as private consumption rose at a faster pace of 4.6% (2Q2023: 4.3%). Gradual recovery in the tourism industry, together with robust growth in local car sales and credit card purchases should underpin continued resilience …

Monthly Review: Risk-on market against cautious central banks Read More »