Fixed-Income Views

Malaysia’s advance GDP estimate for 2Q2024 posted a higher-than-expected economic growth of 5.8% (consensus: 4.7%, 1Q2024: 4.2%). This growth was driven by the continued strengthening of the services sector, which grew at 5.6% (1Q2024: 4.7%), marking five consecutive quarters of at least 4.0% growth. With the services sector remaining robust on the back of sustained […]

Recent economic data for Malaysia was positive, pointing to a firm start to 2Q2024. Wholesale and retail trade was resilient, with growth accelerating to 7.5% in April (1Q2024: 2.3%), consistent with the higher domestic-oriented production growth for the month. On the external sector, Malaysia’s exports posted another month of strong growth at 7.3% in May

Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.2% in 1Q2024, higher than the advanced estimate of 3.9% (4Q2023: 3.0%), mainly driven by the faster expansion of 4.7% in the services sector (4Q2023: 4.1%). Private consumption registered a healthy 4.7% growth (4Q2023: 4.2%), underpinned by firmer wholesale and retail trade growth of 7.1% in 1Q2024 (4Q2023: 3.7%). Meanwhile, investments

Malaysia’s economy picked up by 3.9% in 1Q2024 (4Q2023: 3.0%) based on the advanced estimate, close to the official 2024 full-year gross domestic product (GDP) forecast of 4%-5%. The manufacturing sector registered a 1.9% rebound after two quarters of contraction, while growth in the construction sector accelerated to 9.8% (4Q2023: 3.5%). While the services sector

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) projects the domestic economy to grow between 4% and 5% in 2024 (2023: 3.7%), aligning with the government’s estimate while highlighting a potential rebound in the manufacturing sector and a newly forecast contraction in the agricultural sector. Domestic demand remains the anchor of the projection, supported by a lower unemployment rate,

Malaysia registered a slower gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.0% in 4Q2023 (advanced estimate: 3.4%; 3Q2023: 3.3%), as growth in the services sector moderated to 4.2% (3Q2023: 5.0%) while that in the manufacturing sector remained tepid at -0.3% (3Q2023: -0.1%). Consequently, the full-year 2023 GDP growth stood at 3.7% (2022: 8.7%). Looking ahead, we

Malaysia posted a weaker-than-expected advanced gross domestic product (GDP) estimate of 3.4% in 4Q2023 (Consensus: 4.1%; 3Q2023: 3.3%), as growth in the services sector moderated to 4.7% (3Q2023: 5.0%). Consequently, the full-year advanced estimate GDP growth registered 3.8%, below the Budget 2024 estimate of 4.0%. Looking ahead, we project a higher GDP growth of 4.0%-4.5%

The latest economic data for Malaysia was mixed but within expectations. Retail trade was resilient, with growth rebounding to a four-month high of 2.4% (Sep: -0.4%), consistent with the higher domestic-oriented production growth for the month. On the external sector, notwithstanding the subdued November exports data of -5.9% (Oct: -4.4%), petroleum and rubber products rebounded

Malaysia posted a firmer gross domestic product (GDP) print of 3.3% in 3Q2023 (2Q2023: 2.9%), in line with the advanced estimate, as private consumption rose at a faster pace of 4.6% (2Q2023: 4.3%). Gradual recovery in the tourism industry, together with robust growth in local car sales and credit card purchases should underpin continued resilience

Domestic consumption remained resilient, while the softer decline in exports together with better-than-expected economic performance and stable industrial production growth in China may indicate a potential rebound in Malaysia’s manufacturing sector. The escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to higher oil prices, reignited concerns about inflation, and heightened overall economic uncertainties. Despite