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Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.2% in 1Q2024, higher than the advanced estimate of 3.9% (4Q2023: 3.0%), mainly driven by the faster expansion of 4.7% in the services sector (4Q2023: 4.1%). Private consumption registered a healthy 4.7% growth (4Q2023: 4.2%), underpinned by firmer wholesale and retail trade growth of 7.1% in 1Q2024 (4Q2023: 3.7%). Meanwhile, investments …
In the previous parts of this series pertaining to ringgit realignment, we have discussed the importance of interest rates, current account surplus, and portfolio flows on the ringgit’s valuation. This final part of the series will discuss the supply of money which plays an integral role in the long-term standing of the ringgit. The price …
Ringgit realignment (Part 4): Money supply and fiscal management Read More »
In this multi-part series, we dissect drivers of currency phenomena, including: i) interest rate perceptions, ii) current account (CA) intricacies and the real economy, iii) capital flow dynamics in the financial account, and iv) money supply theories in relation to debt levels and the fiscal position. In this third part, we discuss the impact of …
Malaysia’s economy picked up by 3.9% in 1Q2024 (4Q2023: 3.0%) based on the advanced estimate, close to the official 2024 full-year gross domestic product (GDP) forecast of 4%-5%. The manufacturing sector registered a 1.9% rebound after two quarters of contraction, while growth in the construction sector accelerated to 9.8% (4Q2023: 3.5%). While the services sector …
Monthly Review: Early signs of interest rate outlook divergence Read More »
In this multi-part series, we dissect drivers of currency phenomena, including: i) interest rate perceptions, ii) current account intricacies and the real economy, iii) capital flow dynamics in the financial account, and iv) money supply theories in relation to debt levels and the fiscal position. In this second part, we discuss the influence of the …
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) projects the domestic economy to grow between 4% and 5% in 2024 (2023: 3.7%), aligning with the government’s estimate while highlighting a potential rebound in the manufacturing sector and a newly forecast contraction in the agricultural sector. Domestic demand remains the anchor of the projection, supported by a lower unemployment rate, …
Monthly Review: Market adjusts to delay in rate cuts Read More »
In this multi-part series of press announcements, we dissect drivers of currency phenomena, including: i) interest rate perceptions, ii) current account intricacies and the real economy, iii) capital flow dynamics in the financial account, and iv) money supply theories in relation to debt levels and the fiscal position. In this first part, we discuss the …
Ringgit realignment (Part 1): Interest rates and currency perceptions Read More »
Malaysia registered a slower gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.0% in 4Q2023 (advanced estimate: 3.4%; 3Q2023: 3.3%), as growth in the services sector moderated to 4.2% (3Q2023: 5.0%) while that in the manufacturing sector remained tepid at -0.3% (3Q2023: -0.1%). Consequently, the full-year 2023 GDP growth stood at 3.7% (2022: 8.7%). Looking ahead, we …
Monthly Review: Bond sell-off on resilient US economy Read More »
Malaysia posted a weaker-than-expected advanced gross domestic product (GDP) estimate of 3.4% in 4Q2023 (Consensus: 4.1%; 3Q2023: 3.3%), as growth in the services sector moderated to 4.7% (3Q2023: 5.0%). Consequently, the full-year advanced estimate GDP growth registered 3.8%, below the Budget 2024 estimate of 4.0%. Looking ahead, we project a higher GDP growth of 4.0%-4.5% …
Monthly Review: Rate cut pushback leading to bond sell-off Read More »
Global investors closely monitor Malaysia’s national plans, which play a crucial role in attracting portfolio flows and influencing financial market outcomes, including the strength of the Malaysian ringgit. These plans provide essential information regarding Malaysia’s country risk and sovereign credit risk, shaping global investors’ perceptions of financial market valuations, particularly portfolio flows in the equity …