Views

2025 Macroeconomic Outlook: Growth to sustain amid monetary easing and protectionism

Global economic growth is expected to sustain, given the continuation of monetary easing policies despite the heightened level of trade protectionism. Global growth will be supported by the US economy which appears resilient, outperforming earlier projections of recession and hard landing, largely due to a robust services sector. This sector, buoyed by job creation policies, […]

2025 Macroeconomic Outlook: Growth to sustain amid monetary easing and protectionism Read More »

Monthly Review: Bearish bonds amid hawkish Fed stance

In 4Q2024, Malaysia’s economy started on a strong note, with October’s Industrial Production Index expanding by 2.1% (Sep: 2.3%), driven by a 3.3% growth in the manufacturing sector. Private consumption remained robust, as indicated by a year-to-date increase in passenger vehicle sales, supporting an overall economic growth forecast of 5.1% for 2024. Globally, the US

Monthly Review: Bearish bonds amid hawkish Fed stance Read More »

MARC Ratings: Crude palm oil price to average higher in 2025

The palm oil market continues to face significant uncertainties heading into 2025, with supply-side challenges exacerbated by adverse weather conditions and a slower pace of replanting. Palm oil prices in 2024 have remained elevated due to global supply constraints, driven by reduced exports from the largest palm oil producer, Indonesia, as well as recent adverse

MARC Ratings: Crude palm oil price to average higher in 2025 Read More »

Monthly Review: US bond market diverges from broader bond market rally

Malaysia’s economy demonstrated resilience in the third quarter of 2024, with GDP growth reaching 5.3% (1H2024: 5.1%). Manufacturing growth accelerated to 5.6% (1H2024: 3.3%) while the positive investment cycle remains fuelled by a surge in capital imports. Exports saw a rebound in October, following a minor setback in September. Despite rising global uncertainties, especially after

Monthly Review: US bond market diverges from broader bond market rally Read More »

MARC Ratings: Oil prices to moderate in 2025 on supply dynamics

The global crude oil market is grappling with multiple challenges, each exerting pressure on the near-term price trajectory. Despite OPEC+ production cuts, slow demand growth and diminishing geopolitical risk premiums have kept Brent oil prices below USD80 per barrel (bbl) since 3Q2024. Heading into 2025, oil prices are expected to be weaker compared to those

MARC Ratings: Oil prices to moderate in 2025 on supply dynamics Read More »

Monthly Review: Caution in bond markets; confidence in domestic prospects

Following the 50-basis point US rate cut on September 18, subsequent releases of strong economic data and limited signs of easing inflation in the US have driven yields higher across all bond markets. Notably, the unemployment rate, a key indicator for future rate cuts, improved to 4.1% (Aug: 4.2%), underscoring the resilience of the US

Monthly Review: Caution in bond markets; confidence in domestic prospects Read More »

Budget 2025: Continuing the reform agenda

On October 18, 2024, the Malaysian government announced an allocation of RM421.0 billion for Budget 2025, marking a 3.3% increase from the previous year (2024: 1.5%). Of this amount, RM335.0 billion is designated for operating expenditure (2024: RM321.5 billion) while the allocation for development expenditure remains at RM86.0 billion (2024: RM86.0 billion). Budget 2025 underscores

Budget 2025: Continuing the reform agenda Read More »

Monthly Review: US rate cut sustains foreign inflows

Malaysia’s economy started well in 3Q2024, supported by robust external demand and continued recovery in tourism. Exports sustained double-digit growth in August, aligning with an upward trend in the Industrial Production Index. Despite concerns regarding slower economic growth in China, one of Malaysia’s key trading partners, the recent rate cuts and additional fiscal stimulus in

Monthly Review: US rate cut sustains foreign inflows Read More »

Fiscal Sustainability (Part 3) – Surveillance of fiscal health beyond conventional measures

In the previous parts of this series pertaining to fiscal sustainability, we have discussed the country’s revenue, expenditures, and general balance sheet items. In this final part, we delve beyond traditional debt metrics to offer innovative insights into the country’s fiscal health. Fiscal sustainability is often benchmarked by debt-led indicators; however, this runs the risk

Fiscal Sustainability (Part 3) – Surveillance of fiscal health beyond conventional measures Read More »

Monthly Review: Optimism resurfaces, markets poised for anticipated US rate cuts

Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.9% in 2Q2024, surpassing the advance estimate of 5.8% (1Q2024: 4.2%). The nation’s household spending growth rate accelerated, while gross fixed capital formation sustained its strong double-digit growth. Additionally, export growth surged to 12.3% in July (June: 1.7%), driven by a 10.6% (June: 0.9%) broad-based increase in manufacturing

Monthly Review: Optimism resurfaces, markets poised for anticipated US rate cuts Read More »