Economic Views

The global crude oil market is grappling with multiple challenges, each exerting pressure on the near-term price trajectory. Despite OPEC+ production cuts, slow demand growth and diminishing geopolitical risk premiums have kept Brent oil prices below USD80 per barrel (bbl) since 3Q2024. Heading into 2025, oil prices are expected to be weaker compared to those […]

On October 18, 2024, the Malaysian government announced an allocation of RM421.0 billion for Budget 2025, marking a 3.3% increase from the previous year (2024: 1.5%). Of this amount, RM335.0 billion is designated for operating expenditure (2024: RM321.5 billion) while the allocation for development expenditure remains at RM86.0 billion (2024: RM86.0 billion). Budget 2025 underscores

In the previous parts of this series pertaining to fiscal sustainability, we have discussed the country’s revenue, expenditures, and general balance sheet items. In this final part, we delve beyond traditional debt metrics to offer innovative insights into the country’s fiscal health. Fiscal sustainability is often benchmarked by debt-led indicators; however, this runs the risk

This is a multi-part series of articles where we analyse the elements of fiscal sustainability through: i) government revenue and expenditures, ii) on– and off–government balance sheet items, and iii) innovative sustainability ratios. In this second part, we discuss the state of the country’s balance sheet. Government debts can generate positive multiplier effects when allocated

This is a multi-part series of articles where we analyse the elements of fiscal sustainability through: i) government revenue and expenditures, ii) on– and off–government balance sheet items, and iii) innovative sustainability ratios. In this first part, we discuss Malaysia’s fiscal health through taxes and expenditures. Fiscal sustainability enables governments to meet future public expenditure

Global economic growth is expected to sustain a moderate level in 2024. Growth forecasts for advanced European economies remain relatively stable despite lingering weaknesses. The strength of the US economy may moderate the pace of policy rate cuts, potentially leading to a less synchronised global monetary policy easing, compared to some central banks in Europe

In the previous parts of this series pertaining to ringgit realignment, we have discussed the importance of interest rates, current account surplus, and portfolio flows on the ringgit’s valuation. This final part of the series will discuss the supply of money which plays an integral role in the long-term standing of the ringgit. The price

In this multi-part series, we dissect drivers of currency phenomena, including: i) interest rate perceptions, ii) current account (CA) intricacies and the real economy, iii) capital flow dynamics in the financial account, and iv) money supply theories in relation to debt levels and the fiscal position. In this third part, we discuss the impact of

In this multi-part series, we dissect drivers of currency phenomena, including: i) interest rate perceptions, ii) current account intricacies and the real economy, iii) capital flow dynamics in the financial account, and iv) money supply theories in relation to debt levels and the fiscal position. In this second part, we discuss the influence of the

In this multi-part series of press announcements, we dissect drivers of currency phenomena, including: i) interest rate perceptions, ii) current account intricacies and the real economy, iii) capital flow dynamics in the financial account, and iv) money supply theories in relation to debt levels and the fiscal position. In this first part, we discuss the