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In the previous parts of this series pertaining to fiscal sustainability, we have discussed the country’s revenue, expenditures, and general balance sheet items. In this final part, we delve beyond traditional debt metrics to offer innovative insights into the country’s fiscal health. Fiscal sustainability is often benchmarked by debt-led indicators; however, this runs the risk […]
Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.9% in 2Q2024, surpassing the advance estimate of 5.8% (1Q2024: 4.2%). The nation’s household spending growth rate accelerated, while gross fixed capital formation sustained its strong double-digit growth. Additionally, export growth surged to 12.3% in July (June: 1.7%), driven by a 10.6% (June: 0.9%) broad-based increase in manufacturing
Monthly Review: Optimism resurfaces, markets poised for anticipated US rate cuts Read More »
This is a multi-part series of articles where we analyse the elements of fiscal sustainability through: i) government revenue and expenditures, ii) on– and off–government balance sheet items, and iii) innovative sustainability ratios. In this second part, we discuss the state of the country’s balance sheet. Government debts can generate positive multiplier effects when allocated
Fiscal Sustainability (Part 2): Malaysia’s pathway to a resilient balance sheet Read More »
Malaysia’s advance GDP estimate for 2Q2024 posted a higher-than-expected economic growth of 5.8% (consensus: 4.7%, 1Q2024: 4.2%). This growth was driven by the continued strengthening of the services sector, which grew at 5.6% (1Q2024: 4.7%), marking five consecutive quarters of at least 4.0% growth. With the services sector remaining robust on the back of sustained
Monthly Review: Strong momentum in Malaysia’s growth trajectory Read More »
This is a multi-part series of articles where we analyse the elements of fiscal sustainability through: i) government revenue and expenditures, ii) on– and off–government balance sheet items, and iii) innovative sustainability ratios. In this first part, we discuss Malaysia’s fiscal health through taxes and expenditures. Fiscal sustainability enables governments to meet future public expenditure
Fiscal Sustainability (Part 1): Building a robust tax base and containing expenditure Read More »
Recent economic data for Malaysia was positive, pointing to a firm start to 2Q2024. Wholesale and retail trade was resilient, with growth accelerating to 7.5% in April (1Q2024: 2.3%), consistent with the higher domestic-oriented production growth for the month. On the external sector, Malaysia’s exports posted another month of strong growth at 7.3% in May
Monthly Review: Broad bond rally gains momentum Read More »
Global economic growth is expected to sustain a moderate level in 2024. Growth forecasts for advanced European economies remain relatively stable despite lingering weaknesses. The strength of the US economy may moderate the pace of policy rate cuts, potentially leading to a less synchronised global monetary policy easing, compared to some central banks in Europe
Mid-Year Macroeconomic Outlook 2024: Stable global growth in a moderate easing cycle Read More »
Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.2% in 1Q2024, higher than the advanced estimate of 3.9% (4Q2023: 3.0%), mainly driven by the faster expansion of 4.7% in the services sector (4Q2023: 4.1%). Private consumption registered a healthy 4.7% growth (4Q2023: 4.2%), underpinned by firmer wholesale and retail trade growth of 7.1% in 1Q2024 (4Q2023: 3.7%). Meanwhile, investments
Monthly Review: Bond market on firmer footing Read More »
In the previous parts of this series pertaining to ringgit realignment, we have discussed the importance of interest rates, current account surplus, and portfolio flows on the ringgit’s valuation. This final part of the series will discuss the supply of money which plays an integral role in the long-term standing of the ringgit. The price
Ringgit realignment (Part 4): Money supply and fiscal management Read More »
In this multi-part series, we dissect drivers of currency phenomena, including: i) interest rate perceptions, ii) current account (CA) intricacies and the real economy, iii) capital flow dynamics in the financial account, and iv) money supply theories in relation to debt levels and the fiscal position. In this third part, we discuss the impact of