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Fiscal Sustainability (Part 2): Malaysia’s pathway to a resilient balance sheet

This is a multi-part series of articles where we analyse the elements of fiscal sustainability through: i) government revenue and expenditures, ii) on– and off–government balance sheet items, and iii) innovative sustainability ratios. In this second part, we discuss the state of the country’s balance sheet. Government debts can generate positive multiplier effects when allocated […]

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Monthly Review: Strong momentum in Malaysia’s growth trajectory

Malaysia’s advance GDP estimate for 2Q2024 posted a higher-than-expected economic growth of 5.8% (consensus: 4.7%, 1Q2024: 4.2%). This growth was driven by the continued strengthening of the services sector, which grew at 5.6% (1Q2024: 4.7%), marking five consecutive quarters of at least 4.0% growth. With the services sector remaining robust on the back of sustained

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Fiscal Sustainability (Part 1): Building a robust tax base and containing expenditure

This is a multi-part series of articles where we analyse the elements of fiscal sustainability through: i) government revenue and expenditures, ii) on– and off–government balance sheet items, and iii) innovative sustainability ratios. In this first part, we discuss Malaysia’s fiscal health through taxes and expenditures. Fiscal sustainability enables governments to meet future public expenditure

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Monthly Review: Broad bond rally gains momentum

Recent economic data for Malaysia was positive, pointing to a firm start to 2Q2024. Wholesale and retail trade was resilient, with growth accelerating to 7.5% in April (1Q2024: 2.3%), consistent with the higher domestic-oriented production growth for the month. On the external sector, Malaysia’s exports posted another month of strong growth at 7.3% in May

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Mid-Year Macroeconomic Outlook 2024: Stable global growth in a moderate easing cycle

Global economic growth is expected to sustain a moderate level in 2024. Growth forecasts for advanced European economies remain relatively stable despite lingering weaknesses. The strength of the US economy may moderate the pace of policy rate cuts, potentially leading to a less synchronised global monetary policy easing, compared to some central banks in Europe

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Monthly Review: Bond market on firmer footing

Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.2% in 1Q2024, higher than the advanced estimate of 3.9% (4Q2023: 3.0%), mainly driven by the faster expansion of 4.7% in the services sector (4Q2023: 4.1%). Private consumption registered a healthy 4.7% growth (4Q2023: 4.2%), underpinned by firmer wholesale and retail trade growth of 7.1% in 1Q2024 (4Q2023: 3.7%). Meanwhile, investments

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Ringgit realignment (Part 4): Money supply and fiscal management

In the previous parts of this series pertaining to ringgit realignment, we have discussed the importance of interest rates, current account surplus, and portfolio flows on the ringgit’s valuation. This final part of the series will discuss the supply of money which plays an integral role in the long-term standing of the ringgit. The price

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Ringgit realignment (Part 3): Enhancing the attractiveness of Malaysia as an investment destination

In this multi-part series, we dissect drivers of currency phenomena, including: i) interest rate perceptions, ii) current account (CA) intricacies and the real economy, iii) capital flow dynamics in the financial account, and iv) money supply theories in relation to debt levels and the fiscal position. In this third part, we discuss the impact of

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Monthly Review: Early signs of interest rate outlook divergence

Malaysia’s economy picked up by 3.9% in 1Q2024 (4Q2023: 3.0%) based on the advanced estimate, close to the official 2024 full-year gross domestic product (GDP) forecast of 4%-5%. The manufacturing sector registered a 1.9% rebound after two quarters of contraction, while growth in the construction sector accelerated to 9.8% (4Q2023: 3.5%). While the services sector

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Ringgit realignment (Part 2): Prioritising the current account balance and foreign investments

In this multi-part series, we dissect drivers of currency phenomena, including: i) interest rate perceptions, ii) current account intricacies and the real economy, iii) capital flow dynamics in the financial account, and iv) money supply theories in relation to debt levels and the fiscal position. In this second part, we discuss the influence of the

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