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“This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” is a breakthrough and eye-opening publication by prominent economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff. Reinhart and Rogoff argue that the common belief of today’s economic conditions bearing little resemblance to past disasters is misleading. In fact, crises tend to recur because people have short memories of […]

The US economy looks fabulous at the moment.  The job market remains solid with unemployment at its lowest in almost two decades. Prior to the year 2000, one has to go back to the Nixon administration to see a jobless rate of less than 4%. The improvement is also broad-based, i.e. by gender, race and

Malaysia’s second-quarter economic growth somewhat surprised many. Save for economists who have looked at leading indicators during the period, laymen might not have foreseen the rebound in economic activity during the quarter. Hence, the 4.9% expansion that topped the preceding quarter’s 4.5% growth came as a surprise. Where did the growth come from? This is

It is hardly surprising that the debate on the future direction of the US dollar and emerging market currencies continues to heat up in the news. The dollar’s strength in recent months has grabbed the attention of many, particularly investors, exporters and economists. Greater optimism about the greenback’s prospects has evidently induced portfolio investors to

When Argentina did not secure a victory in its first showing at the 2018 World Cup against Iceland, many of their fans started to feel queasy. We can’t blame them. After all, victory only eluded Argentina three times in the past 40 years since Mario Kempes crushed Holland’s hopes by scoring twice in the memorable

The sudden change in policy with regards to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) after the 14th General Election last month was met with mixed reaction. Although “GST abolition” was one of its election pledges, not many expected the new government to move swiftly to zero-rate all products and services under GST by June. It

We are almost there, according to the World Bank. Malaysia’s aspiration to become a high-income country will be realised in the next few years. The World Bank’s 2017 estimate of Malaysia’s average per capita gross national income (GNI) of US$9,660 is roughly 21 percent below the level needed to achieve high-income-nation status, i.e. US$12,236 or

The recent spike in US equity market volatility has evidently drawn a lot of attention. Although the market subsequently rebounded, it went through a very jittery period following a steep 10 percent correction from its peak in the first week of February. The good news is that a majority of analysts are not expecting the

Cab drivers are among the best people who can tell us about the state of the economy in any country. They can provide a good glimpse of people’s purchasing power by the number of rides they have with their passengers every day. They also have the habit of re-telling stories that their passengers – who

I remember some years back a popular TV advertisement used the phrase “What if…?” to denote the possibility of a potential scenario unfolding, and how we should be prepared for it. In the context of the global and Malaysian economic landscape, the same “what if” question may have to be asked when looking at the