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Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) projects the domestic economy to grow between 4% and 5% in 2024 (2023: 3.7%), aligning with the government’s estimate while highlighting a potential rebound in the manufacturing sector and a newly forecast contraction in the agricultural sector. Domestic demand remains the anchor of the projection, supported by a lower unemployment rate, […]
Monthly Review: Market adjusts to delay in rate cuts Read More »
In this multi-part series of press announcements, we dissect drivers of currency phenomena, including: i) interest rate perceptions, ii) current account intricacies and the real economy, iii) capital flow dynamics in the financial account, and iv) money supply theories in relation to debt levels and the fiscal position. In this first part, we discuss the
Ringgit realignment (Part 1): Interest rates and currency perceptions Read More »
Malaysia registered a slower gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.0% in 4Q2023 (advanced estimate: 3.4%; 3Q2023: 3.3%), as growth in the services sector moderated to 4.2% (3Q2023: 5.0%) while that in the manufacturing sector remained tepid at -0.3% (3Q2023: -0.1%). Consequently, the full-year 2023 GDP growth stood at 3.7% (2022: 8.7%). Looking ahead, we
Monthly Review: Bond sell-off on resilient US economy Read More »
Malaysia posted a weaker-than-expected advanced gross domestic product (GDP) estimate of 3.4% in 4Q2023 (Consensus: 4.1%; 3Q2023: 3.3%), as growth in the services sector moderated to 4.7% (3Q2023: 5.0%). Consequently, the full-year advanced estimate GDP growth registered 3.8%, below the Budget 2024 estimate of 4.0%. Looking ahead, we project a higher GDP growth of 4.0%-4.5%
Monthly Review: Rate cut pushback leading to bond sell-off Read More »
Global investors closely monitor Malaysia’s national plans, which play a crucial role in attracting portfolio flows and influencing financial market outcomes, including the strength of the Malaysian ringgit. These plans provide essential information regarding Malaysia’s country risk and sovereign credit risk, shaping global investors’ perceptions of financial market valuations, particularly portfolio flows in the equity
After successfully navigating through an environment of high interest rates to tame inflation in 2023, the global economy is expected to stay resilient amid the anticipated end of monetary tightening. However, challenges remain in the form of the lagged impact of previous rate hikes and the risk of inflation reaccelerating. The US Federal Reserve remains
2024 Macroeconomic Outlook: Post-tightening global recovery Read More »
The latest economic data for Malaysia was mixed but within expectations. Retail trade was resilient, with growth rebounding to a four-month high of 2.4% (Sep: -0.4%), consistent with the higher domestic-oriented production growth for the month. On the external sector, notwithstanding the subdued November exports data of -5.9% (Oct: -4.4%), petroleum and rubber products rebounded
Monthly Review: Ongoing disinflation sustains market rally Read More »
A country’s economic competitiveness hinges on a solid foundation of quality human capital. The MADANI “Empowering the People” economic framework anchors the government’s commitment to human capital development with measurable goals, including positioning Malaysia in the top 12 of the Global Competitiveness Index (2023: 27th) and top 25 of the Human Development Index (HDI) (2021:
Gains in productivity and education are integral to wage policies Read More »
Malaysia posted a firmer gross domestic product (GDP) print of 3.3% in 3Q2023 (2Q2023: 2.9%), in line with the advanced estimate, as private consumption rose at a faster pace of 4.6% (2Q2023: 4.3%). Gradual recovery in the tourism industry, together with robust growth in local car sales and credit card purchases should underpin continued resilience
Monthly Review: Risk-on market against cautious central banks Read More »
The palm oil market is expected to show a slightly positive price trend going into 2024. Crude palm oil futures prices for the remainder of the year and into 2024 are projected to range between RM3,700/metric tonne (MT) and RM4,100/MT. The edible oils market is currently recovering from the substantial selling pressures witnessed in sunflower
Crude palm oil outlook: MARC Ratings forecasts slightly positive trend Read More »