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On October 18, 2024, the Malaysian government announced an allocation of RM421.0 billion for Budget 2025, marking a 3.3% increase from the previous year (2024: 1.5%). Of this amount, RM335.0 billion is designated for operating expenditure (2024: RM321.5 billion) while the allocation for development expenditure remains at RM86.0 billion (2024: RM86.0 billion). Budget 2025 underscores …
Malaysia’s economy started well in 3Q2024, supported by robust external demand and continued recovery in tourism. Exports sustained double-digit growth in August, aligning with an upward trend in the Industrial Production Index. Despite concerns regarding slower economic growth in China, one of Malaysia’s key trading partners, the recent rate cuts and additional fiscal stimulus in …
Monthly Review: US rate cut sustains foreign inflows Read More »
In the previous parts of this series pertaining to fiscal sustainability, we have discussed the country’s revenue, expenditures, and general balance sheet items. In this final part, we delve beyond traditional debt metrics to offer innovative insights into the country’s fiscal health. Fiscal sustainability is often benchmarked by debt-led indicators; however, this runs the risk …
Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.9% in 2Q2024, surpassing the advance estimate of 5.8% (1Q2024: 4.2%). The nation’s household spending growth rate accelerated, while gross fixed capital formation sustained its strong double-digit growth. Additionally, export growth surged to 12.3% in July (June: 1.7%), driven by a 10.6% (June: 0.9%) broad-based increase in manufacturing …
Monthly Review: Optimism resurfaces, markets poised for anticipated US rate cuts Read More »
This is a multi-part series of articles where we analyse the elements of fiscal sustainability through: i) government revenue and expenditures, ii) on– and off–government balance sheet items, and iii) innovative sustainability ratios. In this second part, we discuss the state of the country’s balance sheet. Government debts can generate positive multiplier effects when allocated …
Fiscal Sustainability (Part 2): Malaysia’s pathway to a resilient balance sheet Read More »
Malaysia’s advance GDP estimate for 2Q2024 posted a higher-than-expected economic growth of 5.8% (consensus: 4.7%, 1Q2024: 4.2%). This growth was driven by the continued strengthening of the services sector, which grew at 5.6% (1Q2024: 4.7%), marking five consecutive quarters of at least 4.0% growth. With the services sector remaining robust on the back of sustained …
Monthly Review: Strong momentum in Malaysia’s growth trajectory Read More »
This is a multi-part series of articles where we analyse the elements of fiscal sustainability through: i) government revenue and expenditures, ii) on– and off–government balance sheet items, and iii) innovative sustainability ratios. In this first part, we discuss Malaysia’s fiscal health through taxes and expenditures. Fiscal sustainability enables governments to meet future public expenditure …
Fiscal Sustainability (Part 1): Building a robust tax base and containing expenditure Read More »
Recent economic data for Malaysia was positive, pointing to a firm start to 2Q2024. Wholesale and retail trade was resilient, with growth accelerating to 7.5% in April (1Q2024: 2.3%), consistent with the higher domestic-oriented production growth for the month. On the external sector, Malaysia’s exports posted another month of strong growth at 7.3% in May …
Global economic growth is expected to sustain a moderate level in 2024. Growth forecasts for advanced European economies remain relatively stable despite lingering weaknesses. The strength of the US economy may moderate the pace of policy rate cuts, potentially leading to a less synchronised global monetary policy easing, compared to some central banks in Europe …
Mid-Year Macroeconomic Outlook 2024: Stable global growth in a moderate easing cycle Read More »
Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.2% in 1Q2024, higher than the advanced estimate of 3.9% (4Q2023: 3.0%), mainly driven by the faster expansion of 4.7% in the services sector (4Q2023: 4.1%). Private consumption registered a healthy 4.7% growth (4Q2023: 4.2%), underpinned by firmer wholesale and retail trade growth of 7.1% in 1Q2024 (4Q2023: 3.7%). Meanwhile, investments …