Economic Views

The year 2026 has thus far been defined by escalating geopolitical instability. Following US intervention in Venezuela and the capture of its president, a more systemic shock emerged. On 28 February, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, and Tehran retaliated with attacks on US military outposts across the Middle East. Hostilities remain […]

As the global economy enters 2026, growth is expected to moderate following a resilient 2025 in which major economies avoided recession, supported by strong services activity. However, structural constraints, including demographic pressures and tight labour markets, are set to weigh more heavily on momentum. Against this backdrop, the global economy is projected to transition into

The crude palm oil (CPO) market is expected to enter 2026 with a softer outlook, following the relatively elevated prices recorded in 2025. MARC Ratings projects prices to range between RM3,850 per metric tonne (MT) and RM4,250/MT in 2026 (2025F: RM4,300/MT). The softer trajectory is underpinned by more favourable weather patterns, recovering yields, and a

The global crude oil market will enter 2026 on a weaker footing, as the combined effects of sustained high supply, subdued demand growth, and ongoing global energy transition continue to exert downward pressure on prices. Despite intermittent geopolitical issues, the fundamental imbalance between supply and demand is expected to remain a dominating factor in price

On 10 October 2025, the Malaysian government announced an allocation of RM419.2 billion under Budget 2026, representing 19.7% of gross domestic product (GDP). Of this amount, RM338.2 billion is designated for operating expenditure, whereas RM81.0 billion is allocated for development expenditure. While Budget 2026 has increased slightly from the 2025 revised estimates, it incorporates downward-revised

On 31 July 2025, the Malaysian government unveiled the 13th Malaysia Plan (13MP), outlining the country’s development framework for the next five years (2026–2030). Key highlights include total investments amounting to RM611 billion, of which RM430 billion is earmarked for development expenditure. This translates into RM86 billion annually, on par with the development allocations in

Global economic growth is expected to moderate in 2H2025 as trade tensions and geopolitical risks weigh on sentiment. The US’ sweeping tariffs have reignited protectionist concerns, contributing to slower global growth. The US economy contracted by 0.2% in 1Q2025, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index for both manufacturing and services falling below the neutral 50 mark

On April 2, the US government launched baseline tariffs of 10% on all imports to the US and reciprocal tariffs on trade partners which were deemed to have existing tariffs on the imports of US goods. This action is in line with the Trump administration’s ongoing and evolving policy on imposing trade tariffs amid rising

Global economic growth is expected to sustain, given the continuation of monetary easing policies despite the heightened level of trade protectionism. Global growth will be supported by the US economy which appears resilient, outperforming earlier projections of recession and hard landing, largely due to a robust services sector. This sector, buoyed by job creation policies,

The palm oil market continues to face significant uncertainties heading into 2025, with supply-side challenges exacerbated by adverse weather conditions and a slower pace of replanting. Palm oil prices in 2024 have remained elevated due to global supply constraints, driven by reduced exports from the largest palm oil producer, Indonesia, as well as recent adverse