Bond Market Updates

Summary Malaysia’s 2Q2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth advance estimate was 4.5%, close to the 4.4% reported in 1Q2025. June’s exports continued to decline after a contraction in May, registering at -3.5% (May: -1.1%). Current data points to a potential broad-based slowdown in external demand, which may persist until a more favourable trade agreement is …

Trade uncertainties weigh on growth prospects – July 2025 – Summary Read More »

Summary Headline inflation eased to 1.2% in May (Apr: 1.4%). The decline was driven by softer prices in food and beverages as well as housing, water, electricity and gas, while prices in the transportation sector remained unchanged from April amid lower global oil prices. Looking ahead, inflation may edge higher due to the 8% Sales …

First foreign equity inflow in months signals a turnaround in risk appetite – June 2025 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s export performance strengthened in April, rising by 16.4% (Mar: 6.8%). This was supported by a 19.0% surge in manufacturing exports, led by strong gains in electrical and electronic (E&E) products, and machinery & equipment. The front-loading of exports after the 90-day tariff pause announcement boosted trade flows, with early gains helping to cushion …

Malaysia’s bond inflows surge, equity outflows ease – May 2025 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s economy is expected to grow by 4.4% in 1Q2025, although moderating from 5.0% in the previous quarter. The growth in the first quarter was attributable to resilient domestic demand and construction activity that offset weaker performance in mining and manufacturing. The ringgit rebounded in April after initially weakening on tariff-related fears, supported by …

Tariff tensions drive flight to safety, fuelling bond inflows – April 2025 – Summary Read More »

Summary The ringgit remained stable in March, supported by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish stance and expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials. The ringgit has traded within the 4.42–4.48 range since January, bolstered by Malaysia’s resilient economic fundamentals and investor confidence. Exports surged to 6.2% in February (Jan: 0.3%), driven by manufacturing growth of 8.8% …

Signs of more dovish monetary policy – March 2025 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s 4Q2024 gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded the advance estimate, bringing the full year growth to 5.1%. The growth is within the official projection and MARC Ratings’ forecast. The sustained expansion of the services sector underscores the resilience of private consumption, which remained a key growth driver, alongside strong external demand. Demand for electrical …

Malaysia prints strong 2024 GDP growth amid global trade war – February 2025 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) advance estimate read 5.1%, within the official projection and MARC Ratings’ forecast. Overall business activity was healthy, particularly with a sharp rise in exports in December of 16.9%, while consumer spending and the services sector remained robust,. Strong overall exports, despite the decline in exports to China, reflected …

Malaysia sustains growth amid hawkish US policy – January 2025 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s 4Q2024 economy started on a strong note, with October’s Industrial Production Index (IPI) expanding by 2.1% (Sep: 2.3%), driven by a 3.3% growth in the manufacturing sector. Private consumption remained robust, as indicated by a year-to-date (YTD) increase in passenger vehicle sales, supporting an overall growth forecast of 5.1% for 2024. Following Trump’s …

Bearish bonds amid hawkish Fed stance – December 2024 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s economy grew by 5.3% in 3Q2024, with manufacturing growth accelerating to 5.6% (1H2024: 3.3%). The positive investment cycle remains supported by a surge in capital imports. Exports rebounded in October after a minor decline in September. While external uncertainties have increased, particularly following the Republican sweep in the recent US election, Malaysia is …

US bond market diverges from broader bond market rally – November 2024 – Summary Read More »

Summary   Following the 50-basis point US rate cut on September 18, subsequent releases of strong economic data and limited signs of easing inflation in the US have driven yields higher across all bond markets. This has prompted a reassessment of the US rate cut trajectory, where current market expectations indicate only one to two more …

Caution in bond markets; confidence in domestic prospects – October 2024 – Summary Read More »