Bond Market Updates

Summary The ringgit remained stable in March, supported by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish stance and expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials. The ringgit has traded within the 4.42–4.48 range since January, bolstered by Malaysia’s resilient economic fundamentals and investor confidence. Exports surged to 6.2% in February (Jan: 0.3%), driven by manufacturing growth of 8.8% …

Signs of more dovish monetary policy – March 2025 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s 4Q2024 gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded the advance estimate, bringing the full year growth to 5.1%. The growth is within the official projection and MARC Ratings’ forecast. The sustained expansion of the services sector underscores the resilience of private consumption, which remained a key growth driver, alongside strong external demand. Demand for electrical …

Malaysia prints strong 2024 GDP growth amid global trade war – February 2025 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) advance estimate read 5.1%, within the official projection and MARC Ratings’ forecast. Overall business activity was healthy, particularly with a sharp rise in exports in December of 16.9%, while consumer spending and the services sector remained robust,. Strong overall exports, despite the decline in exports to China, reflected …

Malaysia sustains growth amid hawkish US policy – January 2025 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s 4Q2024 economy started on a strong note, with October’s Industrial Production Index (IPI) expanding by 2.1% (Sep: 2.3%), driven by a 3.3% growth in the manufacturing sector. Private consumption remained robust, as indicated by a year-to-date (YTD) increase in passenger vehicle sales, supporting an overall growth forecast of 5.1% for 2024. Following Trump’s …

Bearish bonds amid hawkish Fed stance – December 2024 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s economy grew by 5.3% in 3Q2024, with manufacturing growth accelerating to 5.6% (1H2024: 3.3%). The positive investment cycle remains supported by a surge in capital imports. Exports rebounded in October after a minor decline in September. While external uncertainties have increased, particularly following the Republican sweep in the recent US election, Malaysia is …

US bond market diverges from broader bond market rally – November 2024 – Summary Read More »

Summary   Following the 50-basis point US rate cut on September 18, subsequent releases of strong economic data and limited signs of easing inflation in the US have driven yields higher across all bond markets. This has prompted a reassessment of the US rate cut trajectory, where current market expectations indicate only one to two more …

Caution in bond markets; confidence in domestic prospects – October 2024 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s 3Q2024 gross domestic product (GDP) is set for stronger growth, driven by robust external demand and a continued recovery in tourism. In August, export growth remained solid at 12.1% (July: 12.3%), supported by increasing demand across the manufacturing subsectors. Meanwhile, the tourism sector, which has been steadily recovering, is expected to gain further …

US rate cut sustains foreign inflows – September 2024 – Summary Read More »

Summary Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.9% in 2Q2024, surpassing the advance estimate of 5.8% (1Q2024: 4.2%). The acceleration in household spending and sustained strong double-digit growth in gross fixed capital formation were key drivers. Exports surged by 12.3% in July (June: 1.7%), driven by a broad-based increase in manufacturing exports. In July, …

Optimism resurfaces, markets poised for anticipated US rate cuts – August 2024 – Summary Read More »

Summary The advance gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for Malaysia was positive, pointing to the economy’s better-than-expected performance in 2Q2024. The services sector continued to be robust on the back of sustained growth in private consumption, while previously laggard sectors such as agriculture improved. We have revised our 2024 GDP forecast upwards to 4.8% from …

Strong momentum in Malaysia’s growth trajectory – July 2024 – Summary Read More »

Summary Recent economic data for Malaysia has been positive, pointing to a firm start for the economy in 2Q2024. Wholesale & retail trade was resilient, with growth accelerating to 7.5% in April (1Q2024: 2.3%), consistent with the higher domestic-oriented production growth for the month. On the external sector, Malaysia’s exports posted strong growth of 7.3% …

Broad bond rally gains momentum – June 2024 – Summary Read More »