Fixed-Income Views

The ringgit remained relatively stable in March, supported by expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials between Malaysia and the US. Notably, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a slowdown in the pace of its balance sheet reduction. Consequently, the ringgit has traded within a stable range, bolstered by Malaysia’s resilient economic fundamentals and steady investor confidence. …

Monthly Review: Signs of more dovish monetary policy Read More »

Malaysia’s 4Q2024 gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded the advance estimate, bringing the full year 2024 GDP growth to 5.1%. The growth is within the official projection and MARC Ratings’ forecast. The continued expansion of the services sector underscores the resilience of private consumption, which remained a key growth driver, alongside strong external demand. Demand for …

Monthly Review: Malaysia prints strong 2024 GDP growth amid global trade war Read More »

Malaysia’s 2024 GDP advance estimate read 5.1%, within the official projection and MARC Ratings’ forecast. This sustained growth was primarily driven by robust domestic demand, including strong consumer spending, and a resilient services sector. Overall business activity remained healthy, supported by a sharp 16.9% rise in exports in December. The strong overall exports, despite a …

Monthly Review: Malaysia sustains growth amid hawkish US policy Read More »

In 4Q2024, Malaysia’s economy started on a strong note, with October’s Industrial Production Index expanding by 2.1% (Sep: 2.3%), driven by a 3.3% growth in the manufacturing sector. Private consumption remained robust, as indicated by a year-to-date increase in passenger vehicle sales, supporting an overall economic growth forecast of 5.1% for 2024. Globally, the US …

Monthly Review: Bearish bonds amid hawkish Fed stance Read More »

Malaysia’s economy demonstrated resilience in the third quarter of 2024, with GDP growth reaching 5.3% (1H2024: 5.1%). Manufacturing growth accelerated to 5.6% (1H2024: 3.3%) while the positive investment cycle remains fuelled by a surge in capital imports. Exports saw a rebound in October, following a minor setback in September. Despite rising global uncertainties, especially after …

Monthly Review: US bond market diverges from broader bond market rally Read More »

Following the 50-basis point US rate cut on September 18, subsequent releases of strong economic data and limited signs of easing inflation in the US have driven yields higher across all bond markets. Notably, the unemployment rate, a key indicator for future rate cuts, improved to 4.1% (Aug: 4.2%), underscoring the resilience of the US …

Monthly Review: Caution in bond markets; confidence in domestic prospects Read More »

Malaysia’s economy started well in 3Q2024, supported by robust external demand and continued recovery in tourism. Exports sustained double-digit growth in August, aligning with an upward trend in the Industrial Production Index. Despite concerns regarding slower economic growth in China, one of Malaysia’s key trading partners, the recent rate cuts and additional fiscal stimulus in …

Monthly Review: US rate cut sustains foreign inflows Read More »

Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.9% in 2Q2024, surpassing the advance estimate of 5.8% (1Q2024: 4.2%). The nation’s household spending growth rate accelerated, while gross fixed capital formation sustained its strong double-digit growth. Additionally, export growth surged to 12.3% in July (June: 1.7%), driven by a 10.6% (June: 0.9%) broad-based increase in manufacturing …

Monthly Review: Optimism resurfaces, markets poised for anticipated US rate cuts Read More »

Malaysia’s advance GDP estimate for 2Q2024 posted a higher-than-expected economic growth of 5.8% (consensus: 4.7%, 1Q2024: 4.2%). This growth was driven by the continued strengthening of the services sector, which grew at 5.6% (1Q2024: 4.7%), marking five consecutive quarters of at least 4.0% growth. With the services sector remaining robust on the back of sustained …

Monthly Review: Strong momentum in Malaysia’s growth trajectory Read More »

Recent economic data for Malaysia was positive, pointing to a firm start to 2Q2024. Wholesale and retail trade was resilient, with growth accelerating to 7.5% in April (1Q2024: 2.3%), consistent with the higher domestic-oriented production growth for the month. On the external sector, Malaysia’s exports posted another month of strong growth at 7.3% in May …

Monthly Review: Broad bond rally gains momentum Read More »