Fixed-Income Views

Monthly Review: Foreign bond bid firms on ringgit strength and resilient domestic fundamentals

Malaysia’s external sector remains on a firm trajectory, with exports expanding by 7.0% in November (Oct: 15.7%). Growth was supported by resilient demand for electrical and electronic (E&E) products at 15.0% (Oct: 26.5%) alongside a recovery in petroleum exports. Performance among trading partners also remained robust, with shipments to China accelerating to 9.3% (Oct: 7.5%), …

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Monthly Review: Resilient domestic fundamentals anchor ringgit’s regional outperformance

Malaysia’s full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth is on track to reach the upper end of Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) projection of 4.0%–4.8%, supported by stronger 3Q2025 GDP which expanded by 5.2% after two consecutive quarters of registering a 4.4% growth. Reflecting this acceleration, market consensus has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upwards to …

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Monthly Review: Malaysia’s growth prospects strengthen amid global crosscurrents

Malaysia is poised for stronger 3Q2025 growth, with advance estimates pointing to a 5.2% gross domestic product (GDP) growth, above the 4.2% consensus. The services sector held steady at 5.1% (2Q2025: 5.1%) on resilient household spending and retail activity, while manufacturing accelerated to 4.0% (2Q2025: 3.7%). The mining sector, having weighed on growth earlier in …

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Monthly Review: Malaysia’s trade declines on external uncertainties

Malaysia’s imports declined by 5.9% in August, mainly from reduced intermediate goods which made up over half of total imports, while exports rose modestly by 1.9% to RM131.6 billion, mainly supported by demand for electrical and electronics (E&E), machinery and equipment, optical and scientific instruments, and palm oil and palm-based agricultural products. E&E remained the …

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Monthly Review: Malaysia’s exports rebound as tariff cuts restore demand

Malaysia’s 2Q2025 gross domestic product growth came in at 4.4% (1Q2025: 4.4%), slightly below the advance estimate of 4.5%. Growth was underpinned by the services sector, which expanded by 5.1% (1Q2025: 5.0%). Meanwhile, manufacturing growth moderated to 3.7% (1Q2025: 4.1%), weighed down by heightened tariff-related uncertainties during the quarter while the construction sector sustained double-digit …

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Monthly Review: Trade uncertainties weigh on growth prospects

Malaysia’s 2Q2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth advance estimate of 4.5% is underpinned by the services sector’s resilient expansion of 5.3% (1Q2025: 5.0%), driven by robust private consumption and front-loaded external demand in April. However, export performance continued to soften, contracting by 3.5% in June (May: -1.1%), weighed down by persistent weakness in the manufacturing …

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Monthly Review: First foreign equity inflow in months signals a turnaround in risk appetite

Headline inflation moderated to 1.2% in May (Apr: 1.4%), driven by slower price increases in food and beverages as well as housing, water, electricity and gas, while prices in the transportation sector remained unchanged from April. Although the upcoming implementation of the 8% Sales and Services Tax (SST) on 1 July may add modest price …

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Monthly Review: Malaysia’s bond inflows surge, equity outflows ease

Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth moderated to 4.4% in 1Q2025 (4Q2024: 5.0%), but remained supported by the services (5.0%), manufacturing (4.1%), and construction (14.2%) sectors. Exports surged by 16.4% in April (Mar: 6.8%), led by electrical and electronics as well as machinery exports, reflecting the front-loading of trade activities after the 90-day tariff pause …

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Monthly Review: Tariff tensions drive flight to safety, fuelling bond inflows

Malaysia’s economy is anticipated to grow by 4.4% in 1Q2025, easing from 5.0% in the previous quarter due to weaker mining and manufacturing output, although domestic demand as well as the services and construction sectors remained resilient. Inflation stayed subdued at 1.4% in March, but upside risks may arise from the recently implemented minimum wage …

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Monthly Review: Signs of more dovish monetary policy

The ringgit remained relatively stable in March, supported by expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials between Malaysia and the US. Notably, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a slowdown in the pace of its balance sheet reduction. Consequently, the ringgit has traded within a stable range, bolstered by Malaysia’s resilient economic fundamentals and steady investor confidence. …

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