Fixed-Income Views

Malaysia’s 2Q2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth advance estimate of 4.5% is underpinned by the services sector’s resilient expansion of 5.3% (1Q2025: 5.0%), driven by robust private consumption and front-loaded external demand in April. However, export performance continued to soften, contracting by 3.5% in June (May: -1.1%), weighed down by persistent weakness in the manufacturing …

Monthly Review: Trade uncertainties weigh on growth prospects Read More »

Headline inflation moderated to 1.2% in May (Apr: 1.4%), driven by slower price increases in food and beverages as well as housing, water, electricity and gas, while prices in the transportation sector remained unchanged from April. Although the upcoming implementation of the 8% Sales and Services Tax (SST) on 1 July may add modest price …

Monthly Review: First foreign equity inflow in months signals a turnaround in risk appetite Read More »

Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth moderated to 4.4% in 1Q2025 (4Q2024: 5.0%), but remained supported by the services (5.0%), manufacturing (4.1%), and construction (14.2%) sectors. Exports surged by 16.4% in April (Mar: 6.8%), led by electrical and electronics as well as machinery exports, reflecting the front-loading of trade activities after the 90-day tariff pause …

Monthly Review: Malaysia’s bond inflows surge, equity outflows ease Read More »

Malaysia’s economy is anticipated to grow by 4.4% in 1Q2025, easing from 5.0% in the previous quarter due to weaker mining and manufacturing output, although domestic demand as well as the services and construction sectors remained resilient. Inflation stayed subdued at 1.4% in March, but upside risks may arise from the recently implemented minimum wage …

Monthly Review: Tariff tensions drive flight to safety, fuelling bond inflows Read More »

The ringgit remained relatively stable in March, supported by expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials between Malaysia and the US. Notably, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a slowdown in the pace of its balance sheet reduction. Consequently, the ringgit has traded within a stable range, bolstered by Malaysia’s resilient economic fundamentals and steady investor confidence. …

Monthly Review: Signs of more dovish monetary policy Read More »

Malaysia’s 4Q2024 gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded the advance estimate, bringing the full year 2024 GDP growth to 5.1%. The growth is within the official projection and MARC Ratings’ forecast. The continued expansion of the services sector underscores the resilience of private consumption, which remained a key growth driver, alongside strong external demand. Demand for …

Monthly Review: Malaysia prints strong 2024 GDP growth amid global trade war Read More »

Malaysia’s 2024 GDP advance estimate read 5.1%, within the official projection and MARC Ratings’ forecast. This sustained growth was primarily driven by robust domestic demand, including strong consumer spending, and a resilient services sector. Overall business activity remained healthy, supported by a sharp 16.9% rise in exports in December. The strong overall exports, despite a …

Monthly Review: Malaysia sustains growth amid hawkish US policy Read More »

In 4Q2024, Malaysia’s economy started on a strong note, with October’s Industrial Production Index expanding by 2.1% (Sep: 2.3%), driven by a 3.3% growth in the manufacturing sector. Private consumption remained robust, as indicated by a year-to-date increase in passenger vehicle sales, supporting an overall economic growth forecast of 5.1% for 2024. Globally, the US …

Monthly Review: Bearish bonds amid hawkish Fed stance Read More »

Malaysia’s economy demonstrated resilience in the third quarter of 2024, with GDP growth reaching 5.3% (1H2024: 5.1%). Manufacturing growth accelerated to 5.6% (1H2024: 3.3%) while the positive investment cycle remains fuelled by a surge in capital imports. Exports saw a rebound in October, following a minor setback in September. Despite rising global uncertainties, especially after …

Monthly Review: US bond market diverges from broader bond market rally Read More »

Following the 50-basis point US rate cut on September 18, subsequent releases of strong economic data and limited signs of easing inflation in the US have driven yields higher across all bond markets. Notably, the unemployment rate, a key indicator for future rate cuts, improved to 4.1% (Aug: 4.2%), underscoring the resilience of the US …

Monthly Review: Caution in bond markets; confidence in domestic prospects Read More »