Malaysia’s 2Q2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth advance estimate of 4.5% is underpinned by the services sector’s resilient expansion of 5.3% (1Q2025: 5.0%), driven by robust private consumption and front-loaded external demand in April. However, export performance continued to soften, contracting by 3.5% in June (May: -1.1%), weighed down by persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector. Looking ahead, trade attrition due to tariffs and challenging negotiations in this respect may exert further pressure on external demand. MARC Ratings has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast lower to 4.2%, from the previous forecast of 4.4%. Notably, the absence of the front-loading of trade activities in 2H2025 compared to 1H2025 alongside high base effects and a weaker oil sector will weigh on growth data. That said, Malaysia maintains a robust domestic economy which limits downside risks to growth, anchored by resilient consumption and consistent performance in the services sector. Furthermore, in the 13th Malaysia Plan (13MP), the government targets an annual GDP growth of 4.5%-5.5% for the 2026-2030 period, as well as RM430 billion in development expenditure and a deficit-to-GDP ratio of under 3% by 2030.
Headline inflation continued to ease in June, registering at 1.1% (May: 1.2%). Moving forward, inflation is expected to remain moderate; although the Sales and Services Tax is likely to raise inflation in the second half of 2025, this will likely be offset by lower electricity tariffs for the majority of retail consumers and softening global oil prices. Against this backdrop, MARC Ratings projects inflation to register at 1.7% in 2025.
On 9 July, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) reduced the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 bps to 2.75%, in a pre-emptive move to cushion the economy against rising external risks, including geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainties. Despite the rate cut, the ringgit remained stable. MARC Ratings anticipates potential further easing over the next 12-18 months amid weakening external demand and its spillover effects on domestic growth. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its upper bound interest rate at 4.50% on 30 July, with two Fed governors favouring a rate cut compared to zero votes in June, suggesting potential downside growth risks in the US.
In June, Malaysia’s capital market saw net foreign portfolio outflows of RM6.7 billion, the largest monthly outflow year-to-date (YTD) as risk-off sentiment intensified. The bond market led the exodus with RM5.4 billion in outflows (May: +RM13.4 billion), while equities recorded net selling of RM1.3 billion (May: +RM0.9 billion). As a result, foreign holdings of Malaysian Government Securities (MGS)/ Government Investment Issues (GII) fell to 21.8% (May: 22.4%). Looking ahead, near-term risk appetite may remain fragile, due to the ongoing tariff negotiations, and conflicts in the Middle East.
The MGS yield extended its decline in July, falling across all maturities. The front-end rally reflects market repricing following BNM’s 25 bps OPR cut, while softer inflation expectations and a benign global interest rate backdrop supported yield declines at the longer end. Nonetheless, modest fiscal pressures, potentially driven by expansionary policies aimed at mitigating economic risks through to 2026 and stimulating the early phase of the upcoming 13MP, could exert pressures on long-end yields. Secondary bond market activity contracted in June, with overall trading volumes falling by 24.9% m-o-m to RM138.3 billion (May: RM184.1 billion), driven by a pullback in MGS/GII trading to RM119.1 billion (May: RM163.7 billion). While corporate bond trading also moderated, activity in the Cagamas and quasi-government segments saw an uptick.