Malaysian Rating Corporation Berhad (MARC) today hosted its MARC360 Special Edition Webinar titled “War, Power & Markets: Global Conflicts and the ASEAN Economic Outlook”, where leading economists, geopolitical experts, and market practitioners discussed how rising geopolitical tensions and global power shifts are reshaping ASEAN’s economic, investment, and financial landscape. More than 600 participants joined the webinar virtually.
The webinar featured presentations by MARC Ratings Berhad’s economists, Kamal Zharif Jauhari and Revina Sidhu, followed by a panel discussion moderated by Dr Cyn-Young Park, Executive Director of the South-East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre. Panellists included Adjunct Professor Dr Ray Choy, Chief Economist of MARC Ratings Berhad; Dr Muhamad Nadzri Mohamed Noor, Head of Geopolitics at Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB); and Dr James M Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.
In his welcome remarks, Arshad Mohamed Ismail, Group Chief Executive Officer of MARC, said the world is entering a period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty driven by escalating conflicts, trade fragmentation, and intensifying rivalry among major powers.
“Today, the world is facing growing geopolitical uncertainty. From escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the fragmentation of global trade, and intensifying rivalry among major powers, the global landscape is becoming increasingly fragile and unpredictable,” remarked Arshad.
“Geopolitics today is no longer a distant issue discussed only in diplomatic circles. It directly affects inflation, interest rates, energy prices, supply chains, currencies, capital flows, and investor confidence,” he added.
Arshad further noted that ASEAN continues to play an increasingly important role in global trade, manufacturing, investment flows, and supply chain diversification, stressing that understanding geopolitical risks has become essential for sound economic planning, policymaking, and investment decision-making.
During the presentation session, Kamal Zharif highlighted the expected moderation in global growth amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and outlined how tensions in the Middle East could weigh on Malaysia’s economic growth prospects.
Revina Sidhu continued the presentation by discussing how central banks are reassessing monetary policy strategies in response to war-driven inflationary pressures. She also noted that Malaysia’s domestic bond market and the ringgit are expected to remain relatively resilient despite elevated geopolitical tensions.
Moderating the panel discussion, Dr Cyn-Young Park guided discussions on geopolitical fragmentation, great power competition, global trade realignment, and implications for ASEAN’s economic resilience and financial stability.
Dr James M Dorsey observed that the world is moving towards a period shaped by power politics, shifting spheres of influence, and a less clearly defined rules-based order, in which major powers are increasingly asserting their influence more openly.
He noted that while the credibility of the United States has faced growing challenges, no clear alternative global power structure has fully emerged, pointing instead to a potentially bipolar or tripolar environment in which China, the US, India, and several middle powers may have greater room to operate.
Dr Dorsey also remarked that leadership style has become a more visible factor in international relations, making the global environment increasingly unpredictable, while cautioning that ASEAN and smaller states should navigate this evolving landscape carefully to avoid being drawn into broader geopolitical conflicts.
“Globalisation is not ending but evolving into a more selective and security-driven system where economic relationships are increasingly shaped by resilience, strategic autonomy and national security considerations,” remarked Dr Muhamad Nadzri Mohamed Noor, Head of Geopolitics at Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB).
He noted that geopolitical risk is now viewed as a long-term structural factor shaping investment decisions, supply chain strategies, and inflation expectations, while ASEAN economies continue to benefit from supply chain diversification.
Dr Muhamad Nadzri added that Malaysia remains relatively well-positioned amid these shifts, given its semiconductor and electronics ecosystem, while businesses and investors would need to strengthen scenario planning and forward-looking risk assessments in an increasingly volatile global environment.
Meanwhile, Adjunct Professor Dr Ray Choy highlighted that geopolitical fragmentation is increasingly becoming a structural feature shaping global investment flows and supply chain strategies.
“The recent Trump-Xi meeting reflects a broader shift towards a more fragmented geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape. Malaysia is relatively well-positioned to benefit from some of these shifts given its role as a hydrocarbon exporter, while hydrocarbons and the green economy can coexist through initiatives such as CCUS and offshore carbon storage projects,” he said.
Dr Ray also noted that Malaysia’s growing regional connectivity and infrastructure integration could strengthen its role in regional energy and trade flows while creating new investment opportunities.
At the same time, he cautioned that rising energy and input costs could intensify inflationary pressures and contribute to a more pronounced K-shaped economy. Nonetheless, he noted that Malaysia’s diversified foreign policy stance, industrial policy framework, and relatively advanced financial system position the country favourably amid an increasingly fragmented global environment.
The MARC360 Special Edition Webinar was organised by Malaysian Rating Corporation Berhad with Moody’s Ratings as the event partner.
